Description

This analysis provides a forecast of RON14101 prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-10-05 0.337594 0.382478 0.431180 0.487966 0.552382 0.623213 0.707047
2025-10-12 0.271751 0.331219 0.400630 0.487690 0.594083 0.720022 0.880661
2025-10-19 0.226188 0.294388 0.379386 0.493255 0.642098 0.830458 1.087620
2025-10-26 0.194008 0.268274 0.366609 0.506635 0.701465 0.963821 1.345463
2025-11-02 0.158949 0.232407 0.335262 0.490219 0.718669 1.044549 1.547420
2025-11-09 0.129371 0.199192 0.302146 0.465599 0.719903 1.102688 1.726873
2025-11-16 0.109609 0.177124 0.281617 0.455877 0.741069 1.192616 1.968280
2025-11-23 0.093320 0.157764 0.262126 0.444370 0.757130 1.276422 2.213280
2025-11-30 0.083966 0.148160 0.256681 0.454673 0.810172 1.427788 2.595489
2025-12-07 0.071863 0.131947 0.237656 0.438544 0.814766 1.496621 2.843533
2025-12-14 0.063042 0.120199 0.224643 0.430974 0.833213 1.592216 3.155637
2025-12-21 0.055560 0.109784 0.212491 0.422999 0.849326 1.685244 3.477200
2025-12-28 0.051364 0.105292 0.211287 0.436940 0.912296 1.882064 4.048714
2026-01-04 0.046128 0.097937 0.203428 0.436321 0.945798 2.025496 4.535553
2026-01-11 0.042065 0.092400 0.198460 0.441019 0.991469 2.202015 5.127449
2026-01-18 0.039074 0.088710 0.196836 0.452756 1.054656 2.427032 5.871484
2026-01-25 0.034406 0.080571 0.184329 0.437975 1.054949 2.510431 6.296434
2026-02-01 0.029866 0.072040 0.169699 0.415926 1.034466 2.542051 6.600483
2026-02-08 0.026773 0.066477 0.161148 0.407191 1.045148 2.650774 7.121720
2026-02-15 0.023969 0.061200 0.152515 0.396887 1.050195 2.746311 7.626448
2026-02-22 0.022529 0.059147 0.151515 0.406035 1.107581 2.986342 8.572114
2026-03-01 0.020075 0.054090 0.142179 0.391635 1.099193 3.050014 9.031366
2026-03-08 0.018251 0.050446 0.135999 0.384871 1.110930 3.170943 9.681692